Hoop Dreams - QPR FC

After labouring to a Boxing Day victory over Bristol City, QPR and new manager Paul Hart crashed back to earth quickly yesterday after a 3-0 defeat at Ipswich Town. It's a result that leaves the Hoops in tenth, five points off the play-off spots and with some teams above them afforded the luxury of games in hand. What can be taken from this lacklustre defeat then?

1 - Paul Hart's honeymoon is definitely over. It could be debatable if the new boss ever had such a luxury in the first place. If a manager takes over in the summer, such as Jim Magilton, they are afforded time to train with their new players, get to know them and if possible make additions where appropriate. Hart (pictured above) was never going to be so lucky, but a string of positive results could have given him a bit of breathing space. Instead, Rangers look to have barely progressed from the car-crash football which marred Magilton's last few days at the club and the reaction from the home support on Saturday shows that patience is now exhausted. It seems unfair that the new guy, thrown into the middle of this mess, should bare the brunt of bruised expectations but if he didn't know he had a tough job on his hand before, after yesterday's performance he surely will.

2 - QPR's defensive problems are far from sorted. You have to go back over two months to a 4-0 win at home to Preston for QPR's last clean sheet and the ease with which Jon Walters and Jon Stead found the net yesterday suggests that this dismal run could be set to continue. Since that game, QPR have tried five different combinations at centre-back and all to little positive effect. As it's cold outside and there's not too much to do, I've done a bit of number-crunching to show the performance of the QPR centre-backs in the 13 games since they kept a clean-sheet. It's far from pretty reading.

Kaspars Gorkss and Damion Stewart - 540 minutes together - 11 goals conceded = a goal every 49 minutes.
Gorkss and Fitz Hall - 300 minutes together - 8 goals conceded = a goal every 37 minutes.
Gorkss and Matt Connolly - 150 minutes together - 2 goals conceded = a goal every 75 minutes.
Hall and Stewart - 90 minutes together - 3 goals conceded = a goal every 30 minutes.
Hall and Connolly - 90 minutes together - 2 goals conceded = a goal every 45 minutes.


What to conclude from that? Well, if football were that simple, the manager should just pick Kaspar Gorkss and Matt Connolly (pictured above) and bank on letting in a goal a game (but no more). It's hard to draw conclusions when some partnerships have played far longer than others, but Hall, Gorkss and Stewart have all played for significant periods during this 13-game run and none have been able to bring stability to the side. Where Gorkss was reliable last season, he now looks tired and lacking in confidence, with Jon Stead able to easily brush him aside for his opening goal yesterday. Hall on the other hand has really struggled since returning from injury. Whilst remaining a formidable presence going forward, at the back he has tended to over-play it and at times, put his defence in jeopardy.

The defence is more than the two centre-backs of course, but I can't help thinking that if the new manager could settle on a trusted pair in this position (one hopefully containing Matt Connolly) he could go some way towards shoring up a porous back-line. At the same stage last season, Rangers had conceded just a goal a game compared to 36 goals in 24 games this season. Any success by the end of this season will need to be built on a more solid foundation.

3 - It's far from easy to get out of the Championship. The unpredictability of the Championship is now bordering on a cliche and one that The Football League Show are happy to trot out most weekends but QPR's results this season do show that they can compete with most sides and at the same time, are liable to get beaten on any weekend. Ipswich Town were on the brink of the relegation area going into this game but, going on the radio commentary admittedly, easily brushed aside Rangers' efforts. More number-crunching shows that over the last ten years, you need roughly 77 (77.3 to be exact) points to get in the play-offs. Once there, it helps if you finished fourth, the most likely position to be promoted from (barring first and second of course smart-arses). To hit that total, QPR require roughly 44 points from their remaining 22 games - or just under 15 wins. Again, it's never that simple and with clubs stretching down to thirteenth in the table still eyeing a play-off spot, it could take a lower total to sneak in. But with each passing week and each failure to win, the Hoops are moving further away from the stated ambition of the current board to push for promotion this season. It's not impossible, but it's going to be far from easy.

4 - January is a big month. State the obvious again, right? Why should any month in the season be more important than another - clubs especially in the Championship always play roughly the same amount of games, free from the pressures of European football?

Well, for a start there is the small matter of the FA Cup. Though QPR's record in this competition recently is woeful, a decent cup-run could be vital in raising morale and winning round those in the Loftus Road crowd who seem to already have doubts about the new boss. In the last nine seasons, they've fallen at the first hurdle each time including such memorable highlights as First Round defeats to Grimsby Town and Vauxhall Motors of the Unibond League (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/fa_cup/2502973.stm). To even be in the hat for the fourth round would be a morale boost.

On top of that, the four league games over the next month could all be critical. After a pretty shambolic end to the decade and taking nothing for granted, they now have a chance to make amends straight away with two eminently winnable home games against Plymouth at the start of the month and Scunthorpe at the end. In between are two very tricky away fixtures at Blackpool and Nottingham Forest and if QPR are to be considered promotion candidates alongside these two sides, they will need positive results in both fixtures.

Finally, January could be a vital month because it raises the possibility of a touch of squad-strengthening. Considering recent form, this could be a pleasing solution for the new manager but I'm sure there will be time for more discussion of potential additions once the new year arrives...

Ipswich Town - Lee-Barrett, Delaney, McAuley, Leadbitter, Norris (Colback 54), Peters, Stead, Walters, John (Wickham 75), Rosenior, Edwards (Garvan 54).

Subs not used - Bruce, Counago, McLoughlin, Brown.

Goals -  Walters (4), Stead (63 & 78)

QPR - Cerny, Ramage, Stewart, Leigertwood, Routledge, Buzsaky (Agyemang 66), Gorkss, Watson, Williams, Simpson, Taarabt (Balanta 78).

Subs not used - Hall, Connolly, Faurlin, Taylor, Borrowdale.

Referee - Mr S Tanner

Attendance - 25, 340